Was Harry Potter Inevitable
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The new Harry Potter book is great, isn’t it? Or is it? Our society often associates success with … some critics, chances are Harry Potter is great. …
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Michael J. Mauboussin
mmauboussin@ lmcm.com
LEGG MASON
CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
September 7, 2007
Was Harry Potter Inevitable?
Cumulative Advantage, Counterfactuals, and the Halo Effect
The business of imagining . . . counterfactuals is a vital part of the way in which we learn.
Because decisions about the future are-usually-based on weighing up the potential
consequences of alternative courses of action, it makes sense to compare the actual
outcomes of what we did with the conceivable outcomes of what we might have done.
Niall Ferguson
Virtual History 1
Learning is hard because even seasoned professionals are ill-equipped to…
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