Review of Deductive Logic Traditional Confirmation Theory The …

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The Probability Calculus:. Skyrms, “The Probability Calculus,” pp. … “Some Problems for Bayesian Confirmation Theory” by Chihara (British Journal for the …

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Philosophy 114
Probability and Confirmation
Fall 2006
Instructor: Richard Otte
Office: Cowell A-109 Office hours: M,W 1-2 and by appointment
Phone: 459-2819 email: otte@ucsc.edu
Texts:
Salmon, The Foundations of Scientific Inference
A reader will also be available online on eres
Evaluations for the course will be based on two exams, a quiz on the probability calculus, a
take-home essay, class attendence and participation, and the final requirement.
Tentative Schedule
Review of Deductive Logic:
Traditional Confirmation Theory
Hypothetico-Deductive method
Earman and Salmon, The Confirmation of Scientific Hypotheses, pp. 42-55, from Introduction
to the Philosophy of Science
Hempel’s theory
Hempel, “Studies in the Logic of Confirmation”
Probability and Confirmation
Salmon on conceptions of firmness; “Confirmation and Relevance” by Salmon in Minnesota Studies
in the Philosophy of Science, Vol 6, 1975, pp. 3-36.
Goodman’s New Riddle of Induction
“The New Riddle of Induction.” Chapter III of Nelson Goodman (1983): Fact, Fiction, and
Forecast. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 59-83.
The Probability Calculus:
Skyrms, “The Probability Calculus,” pp. 109-136.
Salmon, pp. 63-65
Interpretations of ProbabilityThe Classical Interpretation of Probability:
Salmon pp. 65-68
Hajek, http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/probability-interpret/ (recommended)
The Logical Interpretation of Probability:
Salmon pp. 68-79
Hajek, http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/probability-interpret/ (recommended)
The Frequency Interpretation of Probability:
Salmon pp. 83-108
Hajek, http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/probability-interpret/ (recommended)
The Propensity Interpretation of Probability:
Hajek, http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/probability-interpret/ (recommended)
The Subjective Interpretation of Probability:
Salmon pp. 79-83
Richard Samuels and Stephen Stich, “Rationality and Psychology”, in Alfred Mele and Piers
Rawling, eds., The Oxford Handbook of Rationality, pp. 279-300.
Hajek, http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/probability-interpret/ (recommended)
The Epistemic Interpretation of Probability:
Warrant and Proper Function , chapters 8 and 9, by Plantinga
Otte, “Counterfactuals and Epistemic Probability”
Relation between Objective and Subjective Probabilty:
“A Subjectivist’s Guide to Objective Chance” (and postscript) by Lewis
“Objective Probability as a Guide to the World” by Strevens (Philosophical Studies 95: 243-275,
1999)
Bayesianism:
Coherence:
Subjective Probability: The Real Thing by Richard Jeffrey, pp. 8-21,
http://www.princeton.edu/ bayesway/Book*.pdf.
Warrant: The Current Debate, chapters 6 &…